Comments on: Sky in ‘not falling’ shock http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/ The idle musings of John B Mon, 02 Jan 2012 17:27:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v= hourly 1 By: dave heasman http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-35447 dave heasman Thu, 24 Apr 2008 13:25:56 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-35447 "I’d like to remind you that almost every stock trading prediction program became unstuck a few years ago, because whilst the formulae work most of the time, they don’t cater for “irrational” behaviour. " As Hamish in the Indie today says, although the City markets are an important part of the economy, they're not the entirety of it. The number of people in work continues to rise despite some well-publicised City redundancies. And stock trading predictions really don't have much in common with GDP predictions; stock values can change in an instant, but changes to GDP take place over almost geological timescales. Throughput through places like bakeries, abattoirs, docks etc will remain within a very small percentage of its average value. Stuff will continue to be produced and bought. “I’d like to remind you that almost every stock trading prediction program became unstuck a few years ago, because whilst the formulae work most of the time, they don’t cater for “irrational” behaviour. ”

As Hamish in the Indie today says, although the City markets are an important part of the economy, they’re not the entirety of it. The number of people in work continues to rise despite some well-publicised City redundancies.
And stock trading predictions really don’t have much in common with GDP predictions; stock values can change in an instant, but changes to GDP take place over almost geological timescales. Throughput through places like bakeries, abattoirs, docks etc will remain within a very small percentage of its average value. Stuff will continue to be produced and bought.

]]> By: Anonimouse http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34965 Anonimouse Mon, 21 Apr 2008 11:10:12 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34965 I'm afraid I only have a BSc in a numerate discipline, but I will note that prediction is still a very chancy business. The chancellor's crystal ball reading still seems to be about 0.5 to 1% above anyone else's. I'd be a little more confident if you supplied a list of prediction to historical data. Even then, I'd like to remind you that almost every stock trading prediction program became unstuck a few years ago, because whilst the formulae work most of the time, they don't cater for "irrational" behaviour. I’m afraid I only have a BSc in a numerate discipline, but I will note that prediction is still a very chancy business. The chancellor’s crystal ball reading still seems to be about 0.5 to 1% above anyone else’s.

I’d be a little more confident if you supplied a list of prediction to historical data. Even then, I’d like to remind you that almost every stock trading prediction program became unstuck a few years ago, because whilst the formulae work most of the time, they don’t cater for “irrational” behaviour.

]]> By: Adrian http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34396 Adrian Thu, 17 Apr 2008 18:36:19 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34396 Hey thanks for the great blog, I love this stuff. I don’t usually do much for Earth Day but with everyone going green these days, I thought I’d try to do my part. I am trying to find easy, simple things I can do to help stop global warming (I don’t plan on buying a hybrid). Has anyone seen that EarthLab.com is promoting their Earth Day (month) challenge, with the goal to get 1 million people to take their carbon footprint test in April?... I took the test, it was easy and only took me about 2 minutes and I am planning on lowering my score with some of their tips. I am looking for more easy fun stuff to do. If you know of any other sites worth my time let me know. Hey thanks for the great blog, I love this stuff. I don’t usually do much for Earth Day but with everyone going green these days, I thought I’d try to do my part.

I am trying to find easy, simple things I can do to help stop global warming (I don’t plan on buying a hybrid). Has anyone seen that EarthLab.com is promoting their Earth Day (month) challenge, with the goal to get 1 million people to take their carbon footprint test in April?… I took the test, it was easy and only took me about 2 minutes and I am planning on lowering my score with some of their tips.

I am looking for more easy fun stuff to do. If you know of any other sites worth my time let me know.

]]> By: David Duff http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34332 David Duff Thu, 17 Apr 2008 10:39:38 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34332 "Sneeze-catch-cold effect" Would a medical degree qualify me to comment on this subject? “Sneeze-catch-cold effect”

Would a medical degree qualify me to comment on this subject?

]]> By: john b http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34251 john b Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:53:55 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34251 It's OK, none of the above are required to ask that kind of question. In previous US recessions, "utterly buggered before everyone else" has historically tended to be followed by "rapid recovery before everyone else". Weaker state? Weaker unions? More dynamic entrepreneurs? Sneeze-catch-cold effect? You decide... It’s OK, none of the above are required to ask that kind of question.

In previous US recessions, “utterly buggered before everyone else” has historically tended to be followed by “rapid recovery before everyone else”. Weaker state? Weaker unions? More dynamic entrepreneurs? Sneeze-catch-cold effect? You decide…

]]> By: Tom http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34250 Tom Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:34:38 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34250 Masters degree - check Numerate subject - check Connected to economics - tangentially* Given that, what's the explanation for why the US is suddenly expected to do better than everyone else after doing worse than everyone else for two years? When I see outliers I tend to get intrigued. Masters degree – check
Numerate subject – check
Connected to economics – tangentially*

Given that, what’s the explanation for why the US is suddenly expected to do better than everyone else after doing worse than everyone else for two years? When I see outliers I tend to get intrigued.

]]> By: publicansdecoy http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34225 publicansdecoy Wed, 16 Apr 2008 16:04:48 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34225 Hello. I came here via a link on Liberal Conspiracy. Perhaps things aren't looking *too* bad for the UK, but the scope of most people's concern does not end at our country's own borders... Hello. I came here via a link on Liberal Conspiracy. Perhaps things aren’t looking *too* bad for the UK, but the scope of most people’s concern does not end at our country’s own borders…

]]> By: John B http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34193 John B Wed, 16 Apr 2008 06:19:01 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34193 Jim - agreed that that would go beyond the models' capabilities, however sceptical that it's the problem now (rather than in 20 years, at which point it bites like a savage dog, and we're all screwed unless we've cut consumption, invested massively in non-fossil energy, and been lucky enough not to drown...) Jim – agreed that that would go beyond the models’ capabilities, however sceptical that it’s the problem now (rather than in 20 years, at which point it bites like a savage dog, and we’re all screwed unless we’ve cut consumption, invested massively in non-fossil energy, and been lucky enough not to drown…)

]]> By: John B http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34174 John B Tue, 15 Apr 2008 21:41:58 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34174 Justin - isn't that just a case of "utility company shafts customers, film at 11?". Sucks to happen, but doesn't seem to have any correlation with turmoil in the economy... David - sorry, but people who couldn't tell GDP from a CDR but believe the country is going to the dogs were expressly barred from commenting. Justin – isn’t that just a case of “utility company shafts customers, film at 11?”. Sucks to happen, but doesn’t seem to have any correlation with turmoil in the economy…

David – sorry, but people who couldn’t tell GDP from a CDR but believe the country is going to the dogs were expressly barred from commenting.

]]> By: Jim Bliss http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/comment-page-1/#comment-34171 Jim Bliss Tue, 15 Apr 2008 19:37:46 +0000 http://www.johnband.org/blog/2008/04/15/sky-in-not-falling-shock/#comment-34171 I'll not wade into this one. When I hear a phrase like "credible independent people who understand economic forecasting" it tends to remind me of an ex-economist friend of mine who pointed out that all economic forecasts are based upon an analysis of the recent past and are therefore unable to incorporate novelty. As such, they're only useful in those cases when the future is very much like the past. If you believe -- as do I -- that something new is underway (specifically fossil fuel depletion), or about to happen, then the forecasts of economists are fundamentally unsound. I’ll not wade into this one. When I hear a phrase like “credible independent people who understand economic forecasting” it tends to remind me of an ex-economist friend of mine who pointed out that all economic forecasts are based upon an analysis of the recent past and are therefore unable to incorporate novelty. As such, they’re only useful in those cases when the future is very much like the past. If you believe — as do I — that something new is underway (specifically fossil fuel depletion), or about to happen, then the forecasts of economists are fundamentally unsound.

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