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Electoral impairment

November 5, 2008 1 comment

Two things are going to impair my analysis of this election: brennivin, and my landlady’s inability to make the wi-fi work. On aggregate, however, I’d rather be spending it in Iceland than pretty much anywhere else.

update: yeah, that pretty much worked. been liveblogging on lc, will link sometime. Yay Obama, yay the American people, yay worst fears averted; let’s see how landslidey it goes, how the senate looks, and then what gets done afterwards…

Categories: Bit of politics

Final word on Teacupgate

November 1, 2008 5 comments

5CC wins:

At least the Daily Mail is doing its best to ensure this sort of thing never happens again. Its asylum coverage is working towards there never being any future Andrew Sachses by making sure they die in a war zone rather than be allowed in the country. Just like it tried in the 30s, when it opposed giving asylum to Jews fleeing the nazis, like Andrew Sachs.

Categories: Bit of politics

Violence most horrid

October 28, 2008 4 comments

It only seems like a few months since the biggest “idiots failing to understand numbers” issue was that of crime… oh, for those heady pre-recession days when people had nothing more to worry about than lamenting that crime was a major problem despite it generally not being one.

The latest row, which has unfortunately given ammunition to the ‘all crime stats are lies because my uncle’s neighbour’s nephew’s dad’s dog got STABBED! with a KNIFE!!!’ brigade, is about police forces wrongly classing minor-ish violent crime committed with the intent of inflicting majori-ish violent crime as ‘other violent crime’ (in line with how the courts treat these offences) instead of ‘most serious violent crime’ (in line with how the statistical guidelines say you should treat these offences).

Mark Eaton has an excellent piece on this, using the old stats, the new stats and BCS data to make the point that the reclassification changed nothing significant (not least, because only criminal justice wonks look at these subcategories anyway, with reporters and politicians alike dealing solely in ‘reported crime’, ‘reported violent crime’, and specific types of offence). Hooray for the BBC for hiring him and saving me a job…

Furniture, nudity thereof

October 26, 2008 5 comments

If anyone uses the phrase ‘the cupboard is bare’ when referring to the UK’s current economic position, this is an excellent indicator that they are entirely clueless about it. For one, it’s an embarrassingly trite and twee metaphor, unlikely to be used by anyone literate; for two, it paints an entirely false picture of the government’s financial situation (also, note that the government precisely and exactly did pay down the national debt as a proportion of GDP, which is the only figure that matters, during the boom times, which makes criticising them for not doing so particularly weird).

As Chris highlights (while also, correctly, pointing out that the current ‘sterling crash’ isn’t one at all – if it were, the pound would have fallen significantly against the euro, which it hasn’t. Rather, it’s a dollar/yen rally), people are still falling over themselves to lend the government money at very low interest rates. That’s an indicator that outside of cutesy-talking-point land, serious people accept there’s plenty of, err, cupboard-room.

While I’m here, a couple of points on the Centre for Policy Studies report that purports to show the UK has a ginormously terrifying public debt. For a start, it’s written by a Tory MP – aren’t think-tanks producing this kind of report supposed to maintain some vague pretence of not being entirely motivated by partisan hackery?

Content-wise, it’s the same report the CPS churn out every year, with the figures slightly updated. And as always, it’s spun ridiculously: the angle is approximately “when you include the PFI Enron accounting, Network Rail’s nationalised in all but name-ness, bank bits, various other dodges and public sector pensions, the national debt is enormous”. In fact, the only non-trivial sums it identifies are PFI payments – which it exaggerates by a factor of more than three by failing to follow anything even vaguely resembling accounting standards, as I’ve already pointed out here – and public sector pensions, which are an order of magnitude larger than any of the other factor, and are the only way authors of this kind of paper can get from “the national debt is 42% of GDP instead of 39%, nobody cares” to “oh my god, the national debt is 150% of GDP and we’re all ruined due to Evil Labour”.

Quite how the hell public sector pensions should be accounted for is a tough question, and not one which has been satisfactorily resolved anywhere by anybody. However, suggesting that the UK is particularly screwed because of Labour’s incompetence and dodging, when actually the problem has existed forever and in every developed economy, is grossly dishonest. It also doesn’t represent debt in the sense of ‘people who have pieces of paper saying you’ll pay them and who’ll sue you if you don’t’ – it’s just a promise from politicians to be nice to old people, and we all know about the iron-like unbreakability of politicians’ promises…

[*] Yes, Network Rail’s GBP20bn debt should be included in the headline figures, as it’s government-guaranteed and not secured against tradeable assets. So should the real PFI number of c.GBP30bn; together, these add an extra 4-5% of GDP to the official national debt figure. I’m happy to confirm for the benefit of readers who question my political neutrality that these should be classed in the national debt proper and that Labour are slippery sods for not doing so (although on the other hand, they were the first ever UK government to move to GAAP for public sector accounting and are one of the first globally to adopt IFRS).

The banks shouldn’t be: it doesn’t make sense to view debt backed by tradeable financial assets as part of The National Debt, since it doesn’t represent money that’ll have to be paid back out of future taxation. At worst, we’re on the hook for the difference between the value of the banks’ mortgage books now and the long-term value of the relevant houses, cushioned by homeowners’ wiped-out equity. Even if we have a two-year depression and house prices fall 40% from their peak, the loss potential isn’t high.

In which your host is proved right

October 21, 2008 10 comments

Every prediction I made in this piece from 2005 on 24-hour drinking has proved to be correct: on-trade alcohol consumption has fallen, levels of alcohol-related crime haven’t changed; pubs haven’t made any extra money; but puritan idiots have continued to rail against the rule change anyway.

The most offensively stupid puritan argument is that ’24-hour drinking hasn’t cut violent crime, so it was a failure’. No – the point is, it means that law-abiding people can go out for a drink without having to obey insane rules created to stop soldiers in the trenches getting jealous of civvies back home during WWI. That is a good thing in its own right. If drink-related violence had risen, we’d need to weigh the good against the bad. Since it hasn’t, we can say that the licensing law changes are an unequivocally good thing, and crack open some booze to celebrate. Hurrah!

(it’s also worth noting that on this issue, the Tories are lying crooks who should be run out of town on a rail. Quelle surprise…)

Evidence-based policymaking

October 21, 2008 1 comment

Quoth our illustrious mayor (via):

I am informed that, thankfully, there have been no fatal accidents arising from collisions between cyclists and articulated buses in London since the introduction of articulated vehicles.

Serious incidents are defined by TfL as those where a cyclist may have required treatment, including in hospital. There was one serious incident involving a cyclist in each of the years 2005/06 and 2006/07, and two in 2007/08.

In other words, the data collated by TfL and accepted by the mayor clearly shows that bendy buses are not dangerous for cyclists.

As Tom from Blairwatch says,

At this point you checkmate him by pointing to the reams of documentation on gyratory systems and perceived cycling safety, particularly referring to Parliament Square, Elephant and Castle, Aldgate etc.

Indeed. The mayor isn’t pro-cycling; if he were, then he wouldn’t be adjusting the traffic flow to make cars faster and more dangerous, or pretending that something completely harmless to cyclists is a threat to them. He’s a traditional Tory ideologue, who hates public transport, urbanites and the poor, and loves cars, suburbanites and the wealthy, wearing an extremely skimpy green veil.

The implications for the next Westminster elections are pretty obvious. I can understand wanting to get the current lot out, and I can understand the argument that a Tory government might be less bad than the plausible alternatives. But if you’re voting Tory, don’t delude yourself they’re some kind of NuLabLite and that all you’re opting for is a change of leader – they’re still the party of Michael Howard and Mrs Thatcher, and a vote for them is an endorsement of the whole Thatcherite project.

(I might be being unfair – it’s just about possible that the mayor has no understanding of evidence-based policymaking, and genuinely doesn’t realise that the statistics are a bloody good reason to cancel his hare-brained scheme. I’m not sure that hoping the future PM is merely an idiot rather than a dishonest ideologue is a wonderfully optimistic position to be in, though…)

Categories: Bit of politics, Transport

In other ‘don’t panic’ news…

October 8, 2008 1 comment

rates are still looking pretty good on UK government bonds, so even after the financial bail-out the government has plenty of room to borrow for infrastructure investment.

The only danger is if politicians bow to the pressure from “let’s turn this recession into a depression because we hate Keynes” maniacs and don’t take advantage of the opportunity…

Anything the global financial system can do, local government can do worse

October 8, 2008 3 comments

Individuals who lost more than £50,000 in the Landsbanki collapse certainly let greed get in the way of good sense, and certainly don’t deserve the generous bail-out terms that the government has given them. However, that pales into insignificance compared to the 20+ local councils who’ve lost tens of millions between them in Landsbanki deposits. And who won’t get a penny back, as compensation schemes for bankrupt banks only protect retail investors.

These organisations actually have people employed with financial qualifications in working out what to do with their money. And it’s not like they haven’t been burned before by the collapse of a dodgy bank that just happened to be the highest interest payer (if it is in fact possible to work in local government finance without being told about the BCCI collapse and its knock-on effect for councils, then there’s a systemic problem in that everyone in the entire industry is completely inept).

It’s unfortunate that local taxpayers can’t recover the missing assets from the idiots in question, and the councillors who’ve singularly failed to oversee them (and who, I’m willing to stake near-Landsbanki-style amounts of money, will be more or less equally drawn from the ranks of the major parties).

Update: The Daily Mash calls it right: “oh fuck, we meant ‘Luxembourg’”…

Tube strike conspiracy theory

August 20, 2008 5 comments

[phone rings]
BJ: Wot ho, Bozza here.
BC: Hello. I’m Bob Crow, and I’m evil. I’m going to lead the Tube maintenance workers out on strike (a 5% pay rise just isn’t enough, you see) and paralyse the city.
BC: [evil laugh]
BJ: Oh. That’s dashed inconvenient. Is there, erm, anything we can do to appease you?
BC: Hmmm.
BC: [evil laugh]
BC: Well, there is one thing…
BJ: Jolly good, I always say that reasonable chaps can work things out reasonably.
BC: The guy you hired to run TfL – you know, the one with the record in taking over badly run, overmanned companies, cutting costs, improving services, breaking union strangleholds, that kind of thing?
BJ: Oh yes, Timmy. A bit of an oik – his daddy was a squaddie, what, but the only chap on my team who isn’t a completely useless buffoon.
BC: Hmmm.
BC: He goes.
BC: [evil laugh]
BJ: And that way your chaps will take the 5%?
BC: Oh yes…
BJ: Spiffing fun. Timmy goes, strike’s off, let’s all have tea and cakes.
BC: …until next time.
BC: [evil laugh]

Categories: Bit of politics, Transport

Exciting fact from Commentisfree

July 23, 2008 Leave a comment

The Beatles recorded Revolver in 2005.

Please can we keep the Scots? I’m fairly sure they drive the average IQ up, at least compared to the English Parliament nutters…

Categories: Bit of politics