Waratah trains: why the NSW government isn’t at fault

The suggestion that the NSW government had done nothing wrong would normally seem unlikely, irrespective of context. Even more so when the context is a $2.6bn capital investment project that’s at risk of collapsing, requiring a massive government bailout, or both.

However, the funding shortfall threatening the public-private partnership (PPP) to build 78 new Waratah suburban trains for Sydney CityRail services is an exception. The NSW government did a good job in managing risks for this deal, and it’s at risk of having to stump up extra taxpayer’s cash for reasons nobody can blame it for not foreseeing.

On the plus side, even if the government does have to step in, it’s unlikely the NSW taxpayer will lose much. The biggest loser is likely to be Downer, the train’s builder, which is exactly where the blame should lie. Unfortunately for the NSW government, the deal is arcane enough that the press and the opposition can easily claim otherwise.
Continue reading Waratah trains: why the NSW government isn’t at fault

What I’ve been up to, week ending 2010-09-19

  • Sorry #LibDems. Having been in another country w/coalition – and having looked at the numbers on #ukvotes – you did the best thing available #
  • Directly related to last tweet – the only alliance in Aus with a mandate to govern was ALP/Green. Not Nationals/Liberals. #auspol #

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World leader? Not even close

Matt Yglesias, who used to be a liberal US commentator but seems to have turned into a neo-liberal US commentator, has a very odd piece on retailing, in which he argues that being awesome at retailing is the US’s major skill, which will one day benefit poor benighted foreigners:

We’re the world leaders in retail sector organizational innovations, as witnessed by McDonald’s semi-hegemonic global position and the fact that in a place like China where it’s not number one, the company it lags behind is another American firm. But here in the U.S., we’ve long since pushed beyond mere fast food into the realm of big box retailing, with Wal-Mart leading the way. But thought both these firms have some international operations, they’re evidently not that big and in the case of Home Depot seem largely limited to Canada and Mexico and Wal-Mart doesn’t operate in continental Europe at all… That kind of thing will probably change over time, to the benefit of European consumers, and I guess make the Walton family even richer.

Now, there are only two ways in which I can envisage Matt might have come up with this argument. One is that he’s never been abroad, never looked at any case studies on retailing, never spoken to anyone who worked in retail strategy, and never looked at any reports on US retailers’ attempts at international expansion. The other is that he’s well aware that the above is absolute, ridiculous insane nonsense on stilts, but is writing it anyway.

Having worked in retail consultancy, the retailers that people admire and seek to emulate for their amazing supply chain skills are Tesco, Carrefour, Inditex (Zara), IKEA, Aldi, H&M, AS Watson (Superdrug) and Amazon. One of these retailers is from the US, six are European, and one is from Hong Kong.

Wal-Mart has repeatedly tried to expand internationally, but has only been successful in Mexico and Brazil. It has a strong position in the UK, but this was achieved by buying the country’s fastest-growing retailer in 1999 for an enormous price tag, and not changing very much subsequently. Its operations in emerging markets lag way behind Tesco and Carrefour. It invested vast sums in trying to build a German operation, but eventually ended up closing it down because it couldn’t compete with Aldi and Lidl (who pay vastly higher wages but run a more efficient supply chain – and the former is increasingly doing so in the US as well).

Wal-Mart excels at regulatory capture and union-busting, and is good enough at being a retailer to make a lot of money in markets where it’s established a dominant position. Unlike the companies on my list above, it isn’t good enough at being a retailer (in terms of branding, store experience and supply chain management) to establish major positions in markets where it starts without a dominant position. And “being just about competent enough that you can keep your monopoly alive” isn’t really a highly exportable trait, or a particularly beneficial one to The World At Large.

Although on the other hand, it is a pretty good description of the area where big US businesses are actual world-leaders, whether we’re talking healthcare, oil, telecoms or software…

Crooked Timber comments deliver, again

From a post on the correlation between studying engineering and becoming a violent extremist, commenter Tom Bach:

Hitler was notoriously lazy and profoundly ignorant; in large measure because he never studied anything and read less. He enjoyed rambling monologues filled with made up facts.

Commenter Stuart:

It sounds as if Hitler had been born a few decades later he might now have a show on Fox News.

As if he’d know

Rupert Murdoch to the FTC:

Technology makes it cheap and easy to distribute news for anyone with Internet access, but producing journalism is expensive.

True. Phones don’t just illegally tap themselves, and making police investigations magically disappear is also an expensive business…

However, his implied public service argument falls down on an obvious point: none of the expensive reporting the soon-to-be-paywalled News of the World does is of any benefit whatsoever to anyone. So a footballer’s dad is willing to buy some Bolivian marching powder, or a vicar shagged a tart; see my rock of indifference the size of the Ritz.

On the other hand, the reporting that the non-paywalled New York Times did into the NotW’s crooked ways, and super-dodgy relationship with the Metropolitan Police, is well worth anyone’s money. Funny the way that tends to work…

What I’ve been up to, week ending 2010-09-05

  • RT @legaleagleMHM Just opened wheelie bin and a WASP flew out. Who on earth would have put a wasp in a wheelie bin; what's world coming to? #
  • Thing which perplexes me about this TBL piece: how the hell did they find anywhere in Aus that even serves hot curry? http://bit.ly/aGAFvV #
  • I mean, if you go to a curry house, and order 'hot with extra hot', you get something that'd be a 'medium' in the UK… #
  • …and don't get me started on pizzas. Or Mexican food. Yes, I do want 'hot' sauce and jalopenos. No, it still won't taste of anything #rant #
  • Hang on – who *doesn't* sleep with their mobile by their bed? http://bit.ly/blw0WY #andImover30 #
  • Also, Arnie's nickname is the Gubernator. 'Governator' doesn't work. Eejits: http://bit.ly/d1q5eK #
  • 74% of Australians say they drink in a pub, bar or restaurant twice a month or less often than that. In other news, people lie. #
  • Sorry, did a Liberal Senator really just prank-call Rob Oakeshott's wife and pretend to be the Devil? #ausvotes #WTF #noseriouslyWTF #
  • Ok, apparently the Senator in question thought it was one of Oakeshott's kids on the line, not his wife. #sothatsOKthen #ausvotes #
  • Good work, #Kmart, for selling me a $9 toaster. Was almost tempted to buy some $10 organic bread to toast in it… #
  • Stick a report-related fork in me, I'm done. Well, apart from the bit I need to do tomorrow #ebz http://fallenlondon.com/c/234250 #
  • Ok, infinite mega-work is finished and it's a beautiful day – so I'm on a train to IKEA. Doh. At least I get to go with @chrissiem… #
  • I say "on a train", what I mean is "stuck at Town Hall for half an hour". 30 min frequency on daytime urban rail? Seriously, wtf? #cityfail #
  • JG is correct: RT @annabelcrabb: JG says this Parliament is what the people have chosen, and MPs are obliged to try to make it work. #
  • After seven months of living in this country, I've worked out why the Internet varies apparently-randomly between 'fast' and 'dreadful' #
  • Domestic or domestically-cached (i.e. popular foreign) = fast, because (even pre-NBN) it's better than UK ISPs. International is terrible. #
  • …so if I were the next govt's advisor, I'd run a new big cable to Singapore and another one to LA, rather than cocking about domestically. #
  • I love it when TV incidental music is aces (Teachers on ABC2 played out with Boy With The Arab Strap). Also, remember when C4 was good? #
  • I realise the only people who'll get the last tweet are Britpop fans who're Anglophile Aussies or Aussie Brits. That's my niche, baby. #
  • 'Unfollow' posts are tedious, but wanna note realising that 'voice of rank and file' cop World Weary Detective http://bit.ly/ajdt2z is cunt #

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What I’ve been up to, week ending 2010-08-29

  • I need to do five weeks' work in five days #betweenthisandtheeuphoriaoftheelectionresultthiswillbethebestweekever @unsungsongs #
  • RT @serafinowicz: "I hate knowing everything. It spoils films, etc." ~ God #
  • I hope Wyclef does end up as President of Haiti. I'd also like to see Dizzee Rascal as UK PM… #
  • Loads of new content on #ebz. Curses, this was supposed to be my work week… http://fallenlondon.com/c/220040 #
  • Utter genius – the election as manga video game animation: http://bit.ly/bbBUtd (via @mumbrella) #
  • Great Charlie Brooker piece on the Ground Zero mosque: http://bit.ly/9K4kZk (shorter: "it's not on G0 and it's not a mosque, you fucktards") #
  • This made me laugh a lot. I'm not quite sure why. NSFW: http://bit.ly/btAwJ1 #
  • Or Ayesha, for extra lolz RT @emeraldbile: solution for G0 mosque. Build it, but put a statue in the front of Fatima sucking Mohammed's cock #
  • RT @PreachyPreach: There are c. 70k paid jobs as journos and writers in the UK. Each year, there are 70k journalism + English grads. #
  • A good piece for non-Australians who're confused by #ausvotes http://bit.ly/9GuTyj (and probably some Australians, too) #
  • CROWDSOURCE: does anyone have any info on how Hindus/Buddhists/animists (ie non-'people of the book') were treated in Al-Andalus? #
  • Also, BBC needs chess editor says UK Chess Society RT @mediaguardian: BBC needs religion editor, says Church of England http://bit.ly/dbq5KD #
  • Enjoying the new #ebz content muchly. http://fallenlondon.com/c/222064 #
  • Haha, excellent: http://yourmotherlikesit.blogspot.com/2010/08/comic-sans.html (@chrissiem and any other typography geeks) #
  • The official tourist board account for Worcestershire, @Worchestershire_, is following me. #
  • I find this slightly odd, as I've never tweeted about Worcestershire, and indeed have only been there once. It was OK. #
  • Maybe that's their cunning strategy. "If we can get 000s of leading Twitter mavens to say 'yeah, Worcestershire's OK', people will come!. #
  • Damn you, you cunning Worcestershire marketeers. Visit Worcester. It has cunning marketeers, a Wetherspoons, and some sauce. #
  • Right, that's enough work. Well, it's not enough work really, but I'm utterly fed up and it's trivia time. TO THE PUB. #
  • RT @brappy: Fighting two simultaneous land wars in Asia? Sign me up #unfortunatewordsfromhistory #
  • Unless I've misparsed this, SMUGGEST PARENT EVER RT @RJPartington: BREAKING NEWS: One less place at Oxford/Cambridge University for 2028/29. #
  • Fuck, did just fail. I blame geography and Cameron-avoidance. Sorry @RJPartington #
  • Again, sorry to @rjpartington. Disagree, though – Blairlings ended up at non-Oxbridge institutions despite paternal importance… #
  • As ex-target schools (=make Ox less posh) rep, hope Cameronlets don't get in. *disclaimer* or if they do it's on strict academic merit…. #
  • So there's a flight aggregator site for domestic Australian flights promoting itself heavily on TV. Erm, with 3 airlines, we're OK, right? #
  • Yes, there's also Tiger, but seriously – having seen the doco, would anyone really fly with them? #
  • Quite grumpy my dad never got around to buying Monotype – by the time he'd got the (really not very many) $ together, Mr Gates outbid him. #
  • No, my dad doesn't have any *actual money* but he's a typography geek and noticed DTP was gonna make MT profitable. Am still church mouse. #
  • LIKE -> RT @dixewills: Rumour Nick Clegg introducing legislation obliging all new fathers to take 5 years' paternity leave (via @ianvisits) #
  • World Of Accurate Stereotypes FTW RT @unslugged: Polish man "did not remember being shot because he was drunk" http://bit.ly/dBrxJa #
  • Proof that having a physics degree doesn't stop you being a mad crank who believes unscientific bullshit: http://bit.ly/c7jjtx #wifi #
  • Work going tolerably. #ebz going better. http://fallenlondon.com/c/223933 #
  • No. NEXT! RT @itlt: Will Australia be 100% powered by green energy in 10 years' time? http://bit.ly/a4m0X8 #
  • Wouldn't it be delightful if everyone who supports the death penalty were executed by mistake, just as they wish on others? #happydreams #
  • RT @NathanaelB: My Tiger experience starts with lights in corridor leading to tarmac off, so descended stairs in the dark. Oops! @pdidzzy #
  • Squee! RT @nickjbarlow: BBC Four adapting Dirk Gently for TV: http://bbc.in/cHx1lW #
  • Politicians: if you make a short factual piece that could easily be in text as a video, I'm unlikely to bother viewing it. @greenjennyjones #
  • BHP Billiton definitely couldn't afford to pay any more tax at all, no, not a penny: http://bbc.in/cazBKq #poorbuggers #givethemabreak #
  • This is what happens when you're an analyst & you move to Aus… RT @punkscience: @johnb78 Fair enough. I crown you King of Coal Geekery!:~P #
  • I actually rather like the terrible Chinese Olympic sock ad – kinda mantra-like… #gruen #
  • Wow, Wednesday night ABC1 is really, really good. #somehowbeentoobusyfor6months #noshutupsarkyBritsAusTVcanbereallygood #
  • Loving the hipster from Melbourne, who's mysteriously Brett Anderson #ywc #
  • I prefer drunk mates: RT @VizTopTips: CAN't afford buckaroo? Simply pile items on a sleeping elderly relative until they wake up screaming. #
  • RT @scattermole: Jajajaja. RT @GrantStatic: http://twitpic.com/2i1ea5 #
  • Ice cream (flogged til the company's on its knees) #brettmeals @reallybanderson #
  • And its counterpart, Holding Back The Ears #bestialitysongs @duckorange #
  • RT @duckorange: #bestialitysongs Bunny's Too Tight To Mention #
  • Nothing Compares To Ewe #bestialitysongs #
  • Cum On Kids #bestialitysongs @martin_carr #
  • Trout Gimp Mask Replica #bestialityalbums #
  • Dinah-Mo Hummingbird #bestialitysongs #
  • Fuck The Penguin Away #bestialitysongs #
  • Ride The Tiger, Hard #bestialitysongs @martin_carr #
  • Chris Rea #
  • RT @hangbitch: RT @TheMightierEvo: Nowadays, the term 'sick pay' means to be on a good wage. #
  • Yay. A new AUS digital channel for US crap that's too lame for even Seven and Nine to show already. Aren't we lucky? http://bit.ly/d6Jh0B #
  • My last tweet was slightly unfair: some of the decent US shows from Ten will be moving to Eleven. Still not exactly a cultural WIN. #
  • Work progresses. UK bank holiday has bought me an extra day, which is kinda lucky. http://fallenlondon.com/c/227918 #
  • I like this piece from @chrisk27 on Bez as existentialist icon: http://bit.ly/aHApf1 #
  • My dog's got no nose. He can barely find his way around, and I should really get him put down @armyofdave @evilflea #accuratejokes #nonjokes #
  • Good news: I've written 3,000 words so far today. Bad news: I need to write another 15,000 minimum by Monday night #eek #
  • Tempted to agree with @hopisen that MPs' sexuality is their business – just cos you're gay doesn't mean you *have* to support gay marriage #
  • Going the other way is almost (not the same as, but similar to) suggesting Jewish MPs are obliged to support Israel, and so on… #
  • Just got 2 emails from @PaddyPower – one reminding me of my GBP100 world cup winnings, one of GBP40 in another account I'd forgotten. W00t! #
  • This is excellent, for all you #media types – Edinburgh lecture from the #bbc's Mark Thompson: http://bit.ly/a85T4m #
  • An essential gift for the paranoid right-wing bigot in your life: http://bit.ly/aTyd2i #
  • Rupert Murdoch (News Corp owns HarperCollins) in 'attempting to dick over the BBC' shock: http://bit.ly/9ZJmzc #
  • Quick #ebz and food break, then Back To Work. I love deadlines, me. http://fallenlondon.com/c/230067 #
  • 20,000 words. 'ave it. #
  • Love the fact that #abcnews has to put a 'this contains coarse language and is not suitable for kids' warning on its political chatshow… #
  • Have worked a lot. Brief #ebz break. http://fallenlondon.com/c/232061 #
  • Is there something inherent on TV vs movies that 'produced by Jerry Bruckheimer' implies TV will be watchable but movie will be dreadful? #
  • Single biggest factor in everything RT @mrpower: Forget the washing machine. THIS is what made the difference: http://twitpic.com/2jd02u #
  • Occasional drinkers are sweet, bless: RT @shutupcaf: is it really bad to drink on painkillers even if it's only ibruprofen? will i die? #
  • #ausmedia types – anyone know how much Ten paid to get top slot on the Freeview EPG for ONE? Non-Ausmedia types, don't worry. #
  • Why no David Mitchell this w/e? Goddamn lazy holidaying Guardian union socialists, etc… #
  • CROWDSOURCING: another whisky before bed, or just a cup of herbal tea? Note: it is very lovely whisky. #

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The idle musings of John B