Charlotte Gore is absolutely wrong

Nominal Liberal Democrat Charlotte Gore, who oddly seems to spend more time hating the Labour Party than actually supporting the Liberal Democrats, has a very odd post-election post.

She thinks that if the LDs were to prop up a Labour administration in exchange for the introduction of proportional representation (which is required – if you don’t think the difference between votes and seats here is grossly, rankly unfair, you’re either blindly partisan or insane), then the resulting knock in support for propping up the reviled Labour government would kill the LDs forever.

To paraphrase Blackadder, there’s only one problem with this analysis: it’s bollocks. Let’s assume that Labour are so reviled that anyone who supports them will be tainted with hate. Which is rubbish – whilst some right-wing people, some of whom pretend to be liberals, hate Labour, most people don’t) – but let’s assume it anyway.

In that context, backing Labour in exchange for a definitive deal on PR might cost the LDs half their votes next time round. But the LDs only won eight percent of the seats this time round, on 22i%-ish of the vote. Winning 11% of the votes and seats next time would be an improvement – and any prospective Gordo-taint wouldn’t last forever.

Is there anything wrong with my analysis above? Seriously?

Update for Brits who’re just waking up

Overall, we know about as much about what’s going on as when as we did when I woke up eight hours ago.

Things we do know: the Lib Dems got screwed, probably by the sustained 2-week barrage of media lies about them.

Troll-like ex-home secretary Charles Clarke lost his seat, which is delightful.

Pro-science campaigner and all-round good egg Evan Harris lost his seat, which is a terrible shame (bad work, Oxford people).

And although the Tories have cleaned up in the Home Counties and the Midlands, Labour have mostly held London.

The Tories are trying to subvert the constitutional convention that the sitting PM has the first right to try and form a parliament. This makes them scumbags, and the complete and utter opposite of anything that might be described as ‘conservative’.

Finally, the appalling Hazel Blears kept her seat in Salford (where they weigh the Labour vote) albeit with a 10% swing to the Lib Dems, so I don’t have to drink a bottle of Scotch and streak through Sydney. Which is probably just as well.

(more, less coherent analysis at Johnb78).

Update: excellently, we have our first Green MP, Caroline Lucas in Brighton Pavillion. Revoltingly, Zac Goldsmith has won Richmond Park. If your feelings towards Zac Goldsmith include anything other than disgust and hatred, there is something wrong with you.

Quick thought on speeches

Not sure if these are downloadable, but listening on the radio I was really struck by the difference between Gordon Brown and David Cameron’s speeches on winning their constituencies.

Mr Brown is in the wrong job, and needs to resign tomorrow no mater what the final results, but the speech was heartfelt, interesting, passionate and genuinely moving.

Mr Cameron sounded like the kind of personality-free senior manager who gives corporate Powerpoint presentations that mean nothing, are full of waffly buzzwords, are delivered with intensely loatheable smugness, and generally make you want to die.

I don’t think I could stand living in a country where someone that personally dislikeable (which Gordon Brown, for all his faults, isn’t – you might hate his politics and/or his competence, but I genuinely can’t imagine anyone disliking the man, personally, on meeting him) was main national figurehead and spokesman. So I suspect I’ll be out here for a fair while then…

(FX: checks “permanent residency” requirements again…)

Semi-informed Northern Ireland poli-blogging

It’s lovely to see Peter Robinson, the head of Northern Ireland’s DUP (the Paisley-ite, hardline Unionist party), losing his Belfast East seat to non-sectarian Alliance candidate Naomi Long. Anything which makes NI less sectarian-driven has to be a good thing…

The thing which makes it even funnier, by which I mean “if I was properly awake I’d literally be rolling on the floor with laughter”, is that insane ultra-Unionist blogger David Vance (of A Tangled Web and Biased BBC ‘fame’) won 1856 votes, presumably from people who felt that Mr Robinson didn’t hate the Micks enough. Ms Long’s majority over Mr Robinson was only 1533.

In other words, by attracting crazy sectarian bigots with his crazy sectarian bigotry, David Vance has actually made Northern Ireland a less crazy, sectarian and bigoted place. Hahahahaha!

What I’ve been up to, week ending 2010-05-02

  • my copy of Faith No More's best known single won't play any more #epicfail #
  • i can't get funding for my remake of Spartacus #epicfail #
  • i've been multiplying two mathematical constants both together and by the speed of light, to no avail #epicfail #
  • I always think of the Auteurs' Tombstone when passing the Columbian Hotel. "We'll take the fucking building out, Baader Meinhof style", etc. #
  • …and yes, I know Luke was actually referring to the Columbia Hotel in London… #
  • I LOL'ed. I think this makes me a Bad Man RT @torontoveg: International Respect for Chickens Day: May 4 (via @sirrontail) #
  • Back to work. Back to #ebz. Similar. #
  • Yes, it's excellent -> RT @jamesgraham: This is very clever: #iagreewithnick #disobeymurdoch (via @bloggerheads) #
  • Good election parody marketing from Ikea: – but have they really given Nick Clegg a photo of Hitler? #
  • .@jamesup sorry, but someone's sent me: #
  • Ooops! Ladies, time to don your burkhas: #boobquake #angryGod #
  • Irish politics WIN: RT @twentymajor RT @theddp: Bertie gives up his pension ! >> Now he just needs to give up breathing, the little cunt #
  • Freemania just won at everything: #
  • Getting annoyed by belief that Greece default has an impact on the UK. Greece's debt is (effectively) foreign-denominated. UK debt isn't. #
  • Grizzled union types: it may be true that you can't trust the Lib Dems, but it's *definitely* true that you can't trust Labour… #
  • Tory grassroots still hate gays (read the comments): – via @bloggerheads #
  • I guess this might, erm, help conceal one's recent hand-based activities…? Weird: (via @Awl) #
  • is about to head off to a Mass Debate. Fnarr. #
  • Well, actually it's an absurdly elitist, embarrassingly pretentious debate, but that doesn't sound like a word for wanking so isn't funny #
  • This might be my last message for a while – up early 2moz to be temporarily blinded. But at the end I'll have LASER EYES, so that'll rule… #
  • RT @martinb9999: Dear Gordon, If You Meet a Bigot in the Street, *This* Is How You Respond (via @chickyog) #
  • RT @johannhari101: You know what's so sad about this? That woman said pensions & schools are better now in Rochdale #
  • Last #ebz for a bit, I reckon… #
  • I miss teh @ChrissieM too. Bad eyes. Bad urban geography :- #
  • I can now peruse Twitter in very large print. But probably shouldn't. Eyes recovering well. If I'm lucky I'll even have some valium left. #
  • …which'll be handy for my UK trip in August… #

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What I’ve been up to, week ending 2010-04-25

  • I'm quite enjoying the ban – off to meet up with a friend who's supposed to be back in the UK, but instead is loafing in Sydney #
  • has been the general manager of a large establishment, but still never would've thought they'd have put him in the Good Squad. #
  • derives pathetic childish joy from listening to Armed Forces by the best Elvis. #
  • until last week, i was delighted to be out of the uk for the election. but seriously, the least unpleasant party are winning in the polls. #
  • Damon Albarn QOTD: did he call his third band The Good, The Bad & The Queen so they'd be next to Gorillaz whenever browsing the alphabet? #
  • Only since I've been in Oz have I understood why the collective noun for crows is "a murder". Horrible, unearthly beasts… #
  • I don't know why #davidcameronsexface is a thing, but since I've encountered the concept, y'all can too. #
  • ONLINE. Properly. On a real computer and everything. Hell yeah. #
  • Finding it deeply tedious watching people equate #globalfinancialsystemfail with #labourfail. #
  • Seriously, how much of a partisan idiot do you have to be to believe that NuLab did anything other than follow general economic orthodoxy? #
  • (clue: the correct answer is "lots", and I say that as someone who's never voted Labour in my life…) #
  • I'm pretty sure the fact that crime in the UK has just massively fallen and everyone's ignored it is #nickcleggsfault #
  • This is properly scary: – bets on either the Indy changes its angle or News Corp puts out nasty stuff on Lebedev? #
  • Weird: – sheer churnalism, but all the local press juniors I've met in years were vaguely liberal (via @darryl1974) #
  • Apparently #toryfail types are upset about Sky comparing Nick Clegg to 'Ghandi'. Damn right, I'd say he was far closer to Martin Luther Kong #
  • I know it's like saying "Mussolini was my favourite Axis leader", but Yelland was always my least despised Sun editor: #
  • Haha, #torypressdesperation RT @unslugged DM poll: "Who would make the best Chancellor?" Options are Darling, Cable, and… Clarke. #
  • You meant "relieved", right? -> RT @Anthropith Be afraid. This could happen on May 7th. #
  • Up far too late, now that the UK election run-up has actually become interesting again #nickcleggsfault #
  • The markets, unlike halfwit Tories, don't think that a hung parliament would harm the #ukeconomy: #hangem #ge2010 #
  • Surely the #Tory candidate Martin Coxall who's just been arrested for alleged assault isn't the same MC who trolls @libcon? #
  • Fair clarification, and yes he is -> RT @Anthropith Important to note he's not a PPC. Martin Coxall is a council candidate and a twat. #
  • If You Vote Lib Dem, You Will Kill Rebekah Brooks And James Murdoch's Careers #nickcleggsfault #
  • I'm assuming that @polfret's assault on John Prescott was probably #nickcleggsfault #
  • Of course that's true @Anthropith – but reason it's getting Twitter interest is because he's a prominent online Tory defender #
  • YES! Cassetteboy does the One Show: (via @catdonn) #
  • Nike drops stars who're guilty of crimes; doesn't drop stars who aren't. Hence, they're misogynists #woollyliberalfail #
  • The whole thing is leftie puritanism at its worst. *Raping* women is a terrible thing. *Drunkenly hitting on women in clubs* is not. #
  • I do like's customised links, though. Presumably that's some kind of JV I've missed? #
  • Google seems to have taken a dislike to me. From #1 for 'john band' and 'banditry' to page 2 and #3 respectively. Weird… #
  • Given the subject & the ease of missing out reading little words like "on", I should've phrased this differently: #
  • Back online, so back on #ebz – that's the way it goes. #
  • Haha, @qwghlm has updated the Daily Mail-o-matic for #ge2010 #
  • 4AM. Ooops. Skype's a dangerous tool, a bit like George Osborne. #
  • Party like it's 1999: #
  • Entertained that second-biggest podcast on iTunes UK is some teenage idiot's bedroom japery entitled Mock The Weak. Good work, illiterates. #
  • Unpleasant man, unpleasant website: #
  • Of course you've seen this already, but it's 100x better than Dawkins at making the same point: #
  • Hungover, watching TV and playing #ebz- this is officially the life #
  • Can you guess she's gone home to Ireland? RT @catdonn Waiting for bacon sarnies. Sitting with Dad who's flicking between football & snooker. #
  • Me: "did you see The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo"? My dad: "yes, but I switched off because I was hoping it'd be a kung fu movie" #parentWIN #
  • Anyone watch the #rebus TV shows? I love the books, but am worried the adaptation will lose their excellent, cynical-smart vibe #
  • WhateverYouWantGuv fail: #
  • This evening, my tweets have been mostly homosexual. #
  • Nobody's ever going to answer my #rebus question, are they? The only thing people care about on Twitter is gay sex, weird deaths & Lib Dems #
  • …which reminds me, I tried to explain Jeremy Thorpe to an Aussie the other day, and he didn't believe me: #
  • My first thought, 5-4-3-2-1-RAGE! RT @mrpower Up with the lark. Breadmaker on. Hens let out. Mug of tea. Now to peek at the news… #
  • This song will be the second-most karaoke'd song today: #
  • This song will be the first-most karaoke'd song today: #
  • This country will be my first-most favourite country forever. Well, unless they kick me out for being foreign. #
  • Then again, only a country as cold and miserable as the UK could have done this: #
  • Or this: #
  • Anyone know whether @mtuckerno10 is actually Jesse Armstrong, or an amusing faker/fakir? #
  • Nobody, in history of Internet (or Google, which is close) has ever made the gag "You've had a lot of Dick Cheney, but you ain't had mine" #
  • Let-downs: @MrEdByrne just endorsed Avatar; @herring1967 just endorsed Andy Parsons. You're brilliant people; why d'you respect this shite? #
  • Twittered out. Night all. #
  • This is excellent on immigration: (via @bellagerens) #
  • Cab Calloway, and #ebz, are enjoyable: #
  • In Soviet Russia, computer puns you -> RT @RedScareBot That's Czary! RT @johnb78 socialism & capitalism equal in terms of 'word-dirtyness' #

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The idle musings of John B