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To the Daily Mail, Genghis Khan was a fellow-traveller

October 3, 2013 Leave a comment

The simple fact of the matter is that capitalist democracy, for all its crippling limitations, has been immeasurably less oppressive and a lot more democratic than any communist regime, whatever the latter’s achievements in economic, social and other fields.

- notorious communist Ralph Miliband.

Hat tip to @durrant_james on the Twitters.

Bands of distinctions

July 15, 2013 2 comments

I an a civilised gentleman with a fine reputation; my father has a reputation as a smart bastard who stirs up shit. He also introduced me to the delightful and amazing Kirstie MacColl and by proxy, Johnny Marr.

I feel the need to stick up my dad’s Trayvon commentary, because it needs a home.

This train wreck of a trial is a bit like a Korean airliner crash. It takes a series of errors to get there, but given the people involved, they surely will. A bad law puts the jury in the position of deciding what was going on in Zimmerman’s wretched brain. The jury selection process results in a jury of ladies who might find an encounter with a black hoodie frightening. And then they are told that if they have reasonable doubt about what was going on in Zimmerman’s mind, they can acquit him. The verdict is not a surprise, but it underlines the shabby nature of American law- making and enforcement for the 216 years since a revolution based on a twin commitment to slave ownership and tax dodging, masquerading as a freedom struggle.

Quick and unoriginal Eurovision thought

May 18, 2013 1 comment

Eurovision is massive in Australia, probably more so than it is in much of Europe – despite the fact that there aren’t any Australian participants, we don’t get to vote, and it’s shown on time-delay. Which is odd.

Of course, its importance is symbolic. Eurovision was first shown in Australia in 1983, which was exactly the point when the first generation of Australian-born people of non-British and non-indigenous descent (*) was in the ascendant (since from 1946-1973, migration policy had moved from ‘The Empire’ to ‘any country you like as long as you’re white-ish’).

Australia was shedding old stereotypes about national background, stiff-upper-lips and machismo, and forging its own identity with a nod to all the cultures from which the population was now derived. Combining row-of-tents campness with a near-total match to white Australians’ homelands, Eurovision couldn’t have worked better as a totem of the New Australia.

The White-ish Australia policy has now been dead for almost exactly as long as the British Australia policy had been in 1983, and again, the country has changed substantially and for the better for it. Sure, there are still plenty of bigots, but Asian cultures are now a massive part of the Australian mainstream.

It occurs to me that what we really need now, to cement and mark this, is some kind of massively campy event that somehow nods to both Australia’s multiple European heritages and the Asian heritage of New New Australians… Any ideas?

* yes, I know there have been Chinese and German Australians for almost as long as there’ve been white Australians and for much longer than there’s been a country of Australia. But mass migration was overwhelmingly from the British Isles until after World War II.

Because you’re all desperate for JB’s views on Maggie

April 9, 2013 3 comments

Wasn’t going to blog on the demise of the most important British political figure since Winston, but since everyone else has and this blog is being archived by the British Library (I know, right – nobody tell them I’m Strine now), I thought I’d stick this originally-an-FB-comment line up there.

I grew up in the South of England with a very leftie Welsh mum and a centrist Northern but financial-services-working-dad. So from a very young age my take on Mrs T was always that she was ruining where everyone was from – good for the family bottom line, but that we should be kinda ashamed of that and it wasn’t a way to run a railroad. Or country.

Among people who are just full-on middle-class southeners, when it comes to Thatcher, there’s a tendency to adopt a “something must be done, this is something, therefore this must be done” approach. The UK economy did need structural reform in 1979, like other developed economies. But it didn’t have to be carried out in such a cruel and downright wasteful fashion.

Callaghan’s government was bringing in labour market and regulatory reforms – they were the main cause of the whole Winter of Discontent thing. Had they won in 79 you could reasonably have expected something like Australia or Canada today, with necessary reforms made but labour rights protected and no outright destruction of communities and generations of people. 

It’s a terrible shame the implementation was left to a bunch of outright class war fanatics instead, who decided the best use of the immense windfall from North Sea oil was to pay dole and sick benefits for millions of people they had written off as members of society. 

(then of course a generation later, her heirs say “why are we paying these toerags dole and sick” while pretending not to know the answer is “because that was our policy all along”…)

She also helped invent Mr Whippy ice cream, which absolves a lot of sins. Also Falklands, obviously.

Categories: Bit of politics

PR leaders and their downfalls

March 12, 2013 2 comments

Tony Blair was selected to win elections for the Labour party, by giving good PR face and convincing people that Labour wasn’t terrifyingly left-wing any more, despite being way to the right of most activists and MPs.

David Cameron was selected to win elections for the Tory party, by giving good PR face and convincing people that the Tories weren’t terrifyingly right-wing any more, despite being way to the left of most activists and MPs.

Tony Blair led the UK into a deranged war based on his messianic belief that it was The Right Thing, Dammit, going way to the right of almost everyone who was in any way involved with or a supporter of his party. And he was thrown out as leader only many years later, once he was actively unpopular with the public-at-large by an even greater margin than his party.

David Cameron has implemented a right-wing agenda, certainly no leftier than John Major’s government, despite being in a coalition with the Lib Dems. He has had to fight tooth and nail to get his party to do anything which has even the slightest smack of centrism, and so mostly hasn’t. Yet, despite all the above, and despite being vastly more popular (“less unpopular” might be fairer) with the public than his party is, they appear to be seriously considering turfing him as leader already.

I’m not quite sure what this proves, although “Labourites are Stockholm victims and Tories are a terrifying angry mob who nobody in their right mind would seek to lead” is probably up there.

Yes, it’s a Nerdy Poll Analysis

March 2, 2013 Leave a comment

If you like nerdy dissections of UK by-election results based on over-analysis of post-election opinion polling, combined with random abuse directed at almost everybody involved (but especially UKIP, because obviously), then you’ll probably like my latest piece at Liberal Conspiracy.

Laity ladies kybosh wicked elite’s plan for equality

November 21, 2012 3 comments

On the Church of England female bishops rejection, the saddest thing is that the C of E:

  1. was created by a woman (Henry VIII’s Church rejected the authority of the Pope, but remained Catholic in doctrine; it was Elizabeth I who turned it into a solidly Protestant church after Mary I’s attempt at Catholic, erm, revivalism);
  2. is headed by a woman (Liz’s namesake, defender of the faith);
  3. had a massive “yes” vote to the ordination of female priests from both the House of Bishops (0% female, 94% ‘yes’) and the mixed-sex House of Clergy (29% female, 77% ‘yes’);
  4. saw the vote defeated for failing to achieve a two-thirds majority in the mixed-sex, non-ordained House of Laity, made up of democratically elected representatives of C of E churchgoers (46% female, 64% ‘yes’).

The all-male boys-club dinosaurs voted almost solely for equality, the still-male dominated clergy were overwhelmingly for equality, and the mixed-sex representatives of the C of E congregation (which is itself about 65% female) were the most bigoted of the lot.In other words, if the C of E wasn’t so keen to give regular churchgoers a say, female bishops would totally be a thing already, and the massive blow to both PR and moral authority of voting for discredited Pauline nonsense wouldn’t have happened.

I was going to add, I don’t know why the female-dominated C of E congregation choose to elect representatives (both male and female) who hate women. But on reflection, I’m pretty sure it’s that, although many women whose views mirror those of Ann Widdecombe in rejecting the C of E’s modest levels of inclusivity and egalitarianism have opted to join the Roman Catholic Church (which, obviously, has none of either), some have stayed with what they know. Sadly, yesterday’s vote is likely to keep them on board for longer.

Thought on Nate Silver and election projection

November 6, 2012 1 comment

This is technically true (random quote from blog commenter, but one which reflects a lot of educated-people-who-know-about-stats opinion on the Silver model):

Silver’s analysis (which I happen to accept) won’t be contradicted (or proven) in any way by tomorrow’s outcome. Either result is accounted for in the model. People seem not to understand that.

However, it’s a silly thing to say. If you craft a model in such a way that you are publicly on record as saying that one candidate in a two-horse race has a 90% chance of winning, and he loses, then you will find it very hard to avoid looking like a tit, even if your stats were absolutely correct and the result is just a one-in-ten piece of bad luck for your model.

The only way in which you could plausibly avoid the tail-risk of looking like a tit would be to focus a sizeable part of your commentary on that tail-risk, why your model shouldn’t be taken as an out-and-out prediction, and why you might be wrong, rather than focusing on the reasons that you think are underlying the 90%-likely outcome.

Mr Silver has gone very strongly for the “focusing on the underlying reasons” option, presumably because he’d much take a 90% chance of being The Awesome Pollster Who Correctly Tipped The Election with a 10% chance of being That Tit, than a 100% chance of being That Boring Wonk Who Explained Why We Shouldn’t Pay Too Much Attention To His Numbers.

Which is entirely rational, given the risk/reward matrix he faces, but does mean that anyone who suggests we should refrain from calling him That Tit if the 10% scenario comes through is missing the point.

(tenuously relatedly, I’m delighted to see Ezra Klein dredging up this fine work of speculative psephology and poll-bludgeoning)

In order to protect the children, we had to imprison them

August 3, 2012 Leave a comment

In the context of the neo-puritan trial of Simon Walsh (description of case NSFW although text-only) for possessing ‘extreme pornography’ – in UK law, the simple ownership of photos of consenting adults doing kinky things to each other that could cause physical damage – civil liberties defender David Allen Green made the point that “the trial is about how the State can use the criminal law to regulate images of acts which are perfectly legal to perform”. Political philosopher Chris Bertram countered by making the (fair) point that “that’s already the case re ppl over the age of consent but under 18. So nothing new in that respect”.

I suggested to Chris that this nonetheless wasn’t a strong argument in the extreme pornography laws’ favour, because the laws he cites are also indefensible. He strongly disagreed with my claim that the laws were indefensible. We agreed to disagree on Twitter, which is a terrible location for such an argument – but I thought I’d set out here why I think the laws that universally criminalise the possession of indecent images of people over the age of consent but under the age of 18 are a terrible idea [fn1].

As far as I can see, there are three reasons why society has an interest in minimising the existence of indecent images of 16-17 year olds, while accepting that it is completely legitimate for them to have sex [fn2]. These three reasons need to be balanced against the starting point that it’s both illogical and cruel to ban people who we accept should be allowed to see each other naked and have sex with each other from owning naked/sexual pictures of each other [fn3].

  1. To prevent people under the age of majority from being exploited by creepy pornographers who offer them money for acts and pictures they will subsequently regret and will never be able to take back, despite never having had the legal capability to enter into such a contract.
  2. To prevent third parties or partners from photographing people without their consent (whether or not they distribute the pictures in principle, although the latter is obviously worse).
  3. To prevent incidents where photographs taken by the person or their partner get into the public domain (generally vengeful exes or boastful idiots).

Reason one is hard to argue with. There’s no reason why the capacity to give sexual consent should be equal in law with the capacity to enter a binding contract; prostitution involving under-18s is forbidden in most jurisdictions with harsh punishments applied to clients and pimps for exactly the same reason [fn4]. But it’s already largely solved: if a pornographer pays someone under 18 to have a sexual encounter for money, then they are guilty of child prostitution offences and everyone involved in the process gets jailed for a long time. So we’re left here with the problem of pornographers enticing 16-18s to pose for indecent pictures that don’t come within the scope of the existing prostitution law. Given the legal definitions we already have for the purposes of both obscenity and prostitution law, this would not be at all difficult to draft, with punishments just as severe as currently apply. So that part of the problem can easily solved without any conflict.

For reason two, I’m struggling to see why this point is any different whether you’re 16 or 25, or 33, or 100. If some scumbag takes indecent photos of you without your consent, that’s vile, and if they publish them, they’re an appalling person and you’ve been violated. The fact that a 16-year-old can’t consent in the sense being discussed is irrelevant, since nobody’s consenting to anything anyway. So whatever the appropriate legal solution to this problem may be, it isn’t the one at hand.

Reason three is superficially more tempting. Anyone who actually distributes the pictures in this context would be caught by the same law as the people in reason two, but there is a judgement-related argument that can be raised.

Kids are, in general, both more trusting and more likely to do stupid things than adults, and teenagers mostly go out with each other. So someone aged 16-17 is more likely to treat someone who is in fact a reason-two scumbag as a trusted partner; they are also more likely to be going out with someone who is pathetic enough to publish their private photos if things go awry. At this point, protecting kids from increased greater risk to themselves surely overrides your general right to send your lover a photo for them to wank off to when you’re away, right?

Well, no.

Criminalising things has a deterrent effect, sure, and that deterrent effect varies depending on the rationality of both the crime and the criminal. Famously, the death penalty is generally accepted to have little-to-no impact on murder rates, because very few murders are based on a rational calculation of the penalty if caught.

Murders tend to involve people with poor impulse control (whether generally or due to temporary factors) in situations that involve an intense emotional response. In these cases, deterrence is largely irrelevant: people do not act based on rational calculations. On the other hand, when talking about cases such as deliberate corporate fraud, stringent detection and heavy penalties do indeed have a strong deterrent effect, because they involve rational people making rational decisions.

RHETORICAL QUESTION ALERT: do mid-teenage relationships tend to fall into the category of “rational people making rational decisions”, or “people with poor impulse control in situations that involve an intense emotional response”?

Quite. So rather than creating a situation where kids are prevented from doing stupid things, we end up with a situation where kids continue to do stupid things to pretty much the same extent, but end up being arrested and gaining criminal records for them [fn5]. It would be a bit of a struggle to suggest that this makes anyone better off.

******

[1] Yes, it’s because I want to defend nonces and WON’T THINK OF THE CHILDREN. Discussions of this kind of law tend to into that kind of territory; if that’s your bag, then this blog – along with any source of debate more sophisticated than the comments section of the Sun – is not for you. This is obviously and absolutely not aimed at Chris.

[2] Let’s take the second point as read for the purposes of this discussion; it’s the case both where I live and where I’m from. I know some Australian states and much of the USA set the age of consent at 18, which strikes me as daft for many of the same reasons discussed in this post, but at least consistent.

[3] The UK law in question has exemptions for people who are married or living together and de-facto married, but most people who are aged 16-17 and in fairly serious relationships do not fall within these exemptions.

[4] Prostitutes aged under 18 are also still arrested and charged in many jurisdictions, despite being the victims; the lawmakers, police and prosecutors responsible for this decision should be horsewhipped until they are dead.

[5] Or the law is never enforced, in which case what exactly is it supposed to be for again? If you want to send a message, use SMS not the courts.

The Boeing Comet is still on sale

July 28, 2012 Leave a comment

The first jetliner was Boeing’s square-windowed 707; it was grounded after a few months following tragic incidents which wiped out a fair proportion of elite Americans. The money flowing to De Havilland to create a civilian airliner progamme to promote their non-murderous plane trumped nationalist concerns.

Despite the fact that the 707 is a finer airliner than the Comet, nobody trusts it, and even Pan-Am and TWA are acquiring Comets. The fact that nobody had really understood pressurisation before Boeing’s painful lesson ensures that De Havilland’s planes became the narrow-body airliner to beat all airliners.

Fantasy world: #2: the first supersonic jetliner is Boeing’s supersonic 7NN7. While it made a bit of noise, the need to beat the Comet – because, despite the technical superiority of the Comet, the sheer cash of the US government and the fact that we all need to make up for America’s humiliation  has ensured that nonsense about ‘supersonic booms’ was defeated by the allegiances of the civilised world.

With its Rolls-Royce/Pratt & Whitney engines, it has been allowed to fly supersonic over all territories outside of the USSR. New York-London-Singapore-Sydney-Los Angeles-New York on Pan-Am was do-able in under a day. Fashionistas signed up, in the hope it would make them sexy and youthful. The conception that transatlantic flight takes more than 4 hours became ludicrous, like the concept of taking four days in a flying boat before WWII,