If you cast your mind back to the ancient times of (checks notes) two weeks ago, you might remember that I wrote a piece up here saying that we should be optimistic about the Australian vaccine roll-out, because at the levels of roll-out growth seen in May, we should be on track to cover the whole population with two doses by the end of 2021.

I included a couple of vaccine forecasts for average daily doses in this one. With another two weeks of roll-out data available, how are they looking?

Australia actual vaccine performance vs John’s vaccine forecasts

I’ve never been happier to be so utterly wrong (except possibly the 2017 UK General Election result, for all the good that did). Congratulations to all the jabbers and jabbees across the nation!

Header image: Marco Verch / CC-BY 2.0

One thought on “The nicest way in which to get vaccine forecasts wrong

  1. Hi John – still going? I’m surprised you’re not blogging given how history seems to be accelerating ever faster at the moment – makes those noughties days seem quite staid.

    I was in Melbourne Central Library last year, and the reading room was 90% diligent Chinese students…

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