The obvious answer to the question "why won't Facebook decline by 80% by the end of December this year" is "because obviously it won't, what kind of idiot would even claim it would?". It's the leading social network in all age groups, and between July and December 2013 total user numbers only fell by 3%. … Continue reading The Facebook decline paper is a disgrace to Princeton’s name
Category: Statistrickery
So Dan Nolan was wondering how much beer it would take to kill you. It turns out the answer (LD50) is 42.5 cans in an hour, or 61 cans in a 24-hour day for a normal drinker, or 96.5 cans in a 24-hour day for a heavy drinker who hasn't yet developed serious liver damage. … Continue reading How To Calibrate A Booze Up So You’re Halfway Likely To Die
This is technically true (random quote from blog commenter, but one which reflects a lot of educated-people-who-know-about-stats opinion on the Silver model): Silver's analysis (which I happen to accept) won't be contradicted (or proven) in any way by tomorrow's outcome. Either result is accounted for in the model. People seem not to understand that. However, … Continue reading Thought on Nate Silver and election projection
After a massively high-spending recall campaign, a controversial Republican state governor has held onto power with a slightly increased majority (while losing control of the state senate). Naturally, the oh-so-left-wing US media are spinning this as Terrible Democrat Defeat, Disaster Due for November, etc. To highlight the fact that this spin is absolute dingoes' kidneys, it's … Continue reading The sun is, most likely, still gonna shine in November
Alcohol is famous for its ability to cause stupidity. As with most other drugs, this property doesn't solely apply to chronic abusers - it also applies to policymakers and opinion writers, even the sober ones. Drugs and alcohol are second only to immigration as a leading cause of utterly stupid articles. Now, I've written plenty … Continue reading Alcohol-related stupidity
There seems to be a meme floating around the social marketing world at the moment that the super-notorious Old Spice mass media and viral ad campaign has failed to drive sales, despite grabbing mindshare and winning awards. This seems to be based on a Brandweek article that isn't available on their website (w00t new media … Continue reading No, the Old Spice campaign hasn’t failed
So there's yet another alcohol-bashing study out. This one says [*] that sports stars' drunk behaviour has no impact on young adults' drinking behaviour (that's 'over 18s', or 'legally responsible adults'), but that alcohol marketing does. This isn't surprising. Of course alcohol marketing makes people drink more of the brand being marketed, otherwise people wouldn't … Continue reading Missing the point on booze marketing, again
Here's a nice report by a real statistician on how London's low murder rate is nothing to worry about unless you're a gibbering paranoid ignorant fool. Unsurprisingly, it's received almost no media play at all. I mean, what news value is there in a study proving that the 'OMG t3H knife crime!!!!' narrative is bollocks … Continue reading Worried about stabbings? Don’t be
RBS: As part of our implementation of FSA guidelines around Anti-Money Laundering activities, we introduced questions on Politically Exposed Persons as part of our account opening procedures. Genius financial columnist Nelson: what on earth is a Politically Exposed Person? The FSA anti-money-laundering guidelines, which have been in force for three years: customers who, by virtue … Continue reading Fraser Nelson: ignorance and paranoia, in one simple package
In England and Wales up until 1986, there were two sorts of exam a child could take at the compulsory school leaving age of 16. CSEs weren't very academically rigorous and were aimed at kids who weren't planning to take further academic qualifications. O-levels were more academically rigorous; they were aimed at kids who were … Continue reading Dumbing down, and that’s just the fogeyish commentators